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Seeking Digital Peace and Security in a World of Quantum Uncertainty

Opportunities for peace in the Quantum Era

United Nations General Assembly Resolution A/RES/78/287 declares 2025 to be the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, recognising the rapid technological advancements in quantum computing. Quantum computing can facilitate the global trust needed to secure digital peace which is increasingly needed for peace per se. It is in the mutual interest of the global community to collectively agree upon, and create a legal duty of states towards, post-quantum cybersecurity standards to guarantee digital peace. Such an agreement would provide the trust and international cooperation required for peace and stability in an era of rapid technological development. The absence of such international agreement towards collaborative peace will likely result rather in the destabilisation of the global order, with some states or groups obtaining a competitive technological advantage in accessing encrypted digital communications as consequential as the Enigma code.

Risks to digital peace

The United Nations (UN) Secretary-General has warned that quantum’s decryption capabilities could ‘break down entire systems’ by breaching current cybersecurity protections. An impending technological breakthrough known as ‘Q-Day’ whereby a powerful quantum computer capable of breaching most modern encryption algorithms protecting everything from banking to military communications, is predicted to have globally consequential impacts on international security and global stability. The international race amongst superpowers to develop quantum capabilities unilaterally would enable decoding of other states’ protected secrets resulting in the erosion of trust between states. Such breakthrough capabilities may be controlled by private technology firms able to offer their services to the highest bidder or obtained by hostile cybercriminal groups.

Defining Digital Peace

A pressing goal of the international community is the preservation of ‘digital peace’ permitting a stable and secure cyberspace amidst disruptive technological uncertainty that could threaten a wider peace. Building on the Paris Call for Trust and Security in Cyberspace, digital peace involves maintaining a rule-abiding cyberspace to strengthen societies, facilitate international cooperation and serve as an ‘Invisible Pillar’ that can help achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Quantum Threats to Stability

Recent advancements in quantum computer enable mathematical problems to be solved in minutes that would take traditional computing billions of years to solve. This presents an opportunity to overcome modern encryption standards resulting in encrypted data becoming readable. Financial transactions, e-commerce, healthcare communications and personal messages are at risk alongside diplomatic cables and military communications. The resulting collapse of trust and confidentiality may destabilise international stability while states with quantum capabilities would gain offensive advantages. To prevent such catastrophe and achieve digital peace, the international community need a combined effort to develop and implement post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms which are quantum-resistant. States are interdependent in cybersecurity in that the weakest link threatens all parties, while a combined effort towards PQC would require countries to work together and share knowledge akin to the climate change challenge, which itself would promote peace beyond digital security.

Gaps in International Law and Norms

International law does not explicitly cover this emerging threat and is silent on the build-up and proliferation of quantum capabilities.

The Budapest Convention on Cybercrime addresses criminal hacking and cooperation in prosecution, not state-sponsored cyber operations or encryption threats. Predating the quantum era, the treaty assumes encryption is a tool to be preserved for security and does not envision quantum technology’s ability to breach such safeguards. Major cyber powers such as China and Russia are not parties to the Budapest Convention. Certain provisions like Article 6 on misuse of devices may arguably be stretched to cover illicit use of quantum decryption tools, though this is uncertain.

The Wassenaar Arrangement on export controls nominally limits the spread of dual-use cyber tools and its ‘List of Dual-Use Goods and Technologies’ has been updated to include quantum cryptography devices and high-end quantum computing components. While useful, China and Russia are among countries not included in the agreement, again limiting its universality.

There is also no definitive customary norm against exploiting quantum computing for espionage or sabotage. While the principle of state sovereignty applies to cyberspace, states disagree on what cyber activities violate sovereignty in peacetime. Traditional international law is largely silent on peacetime espionage including quantum technologies, despite its provocative capabilities. The Tallinn Manual 2.0 confirms the illegality of cyber operations violating territorial sovereignty or amounting to unlawful intervention but does not specifically address quantum capabilities and has no official standing. As such, the legal and normative framework governing cyberspace is ill-equipped for the quantum disruption, leaving a risk of regulatory vacuum just as this technology matures.

Global Coordination and a Quantum Cyber-Peace Pact

Cyber threats are by nature transnational, meaning a quantum-enabled attack on one nation’s critical systems could have domino effects globally. A quantum divide where only a few states secure themselves while others are left exposed would prove dangerous. Technical collaboration on post-quantum cryptography standards and capacity-building for less developed countries are needed eliminate weak links and help preserve digital peace.

States should further consider a new multilateral treaty on quantum cybersecurity committing nations to restrain the hostile use of quantum computing in cyberspace while promoting its beneficial applications. This may include non-use of quantum decryption of foreign critical infrastructure or confidential data akin to arms control accords for other disruptive technologies. The treaty can be designed towards collective responsibility in making it an international legal duty to pursue quantum-resistant security and to refrain from acts that would reduce digital trust. The Wassenaar Arrangement provides an existing platform involving quantum computing and expanding the number of signatories would be progress.

International institutions have a critical role in advancing these solutions. The UN can facilitate dialogue and normative development through platforms such as the UN Open-Ended Working Group on ICT security and integrate quantum security into its broader peace and security agenda. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) can lead on technical coordination to help countries upgrade to PQC and reduce the global cryptographic divide. Indeed, the ITU issued recommendations on the security of quantum key distribution networks. High-level endorsement of norms by the UN General Assembly would lend further weight to this effort.

Conclusion

Quantum computing offers vast benefits for digital peace and need not threaten peace if the international community urgently act. Updating international law, developing global governance and cooperative norms, and investing in quantum-resilient security can strengthen digital peace and stability.